Why can’t I win betting "elite" pitching?

by Jerry Bleiman, author of Organized Sports Betting…How to Even theScorewith your Bookmaker. Book/computer program at ,as well as Gambler’s Bookstore and Amazon.com

The simple answer is that you pay too much to bet on these type of pitchers.But let’s work backwards. First I’ll tell you of the 6 pitchers I consider"elite" (P. Martinez, R Johnson, Maddux, Brown, Wells and Hampton)Martinez costs the most and has the worst record. I don’t mean their personalW-L, but whether the team wins or losses, which is the number you win or loseon.

Next you need to know the team records when these pitchers start: 17-12 (asof 4/30) or a win rate of 58%. This means you should not lay more than –140 tobet these starters. But we know, unless they pitch against each other, you mustlay anywhere from –180 to–300.

Why is their record above average, but way below bettor expectations? Bettorsexpect these pitchers to "carry" the team by themselves. The feelingis that one or two runs are enough to win. But what really happens in thesegames? First off, the opposition generally puts up their #1 or #2 starter,feeling that if you have a close game, anything can happen. Next you have tolook at the bullpen. You can’t assume these pitchers will go 9 innings.Weather, threat of injury, pitch counts and, in the NL, pinch hitters will endthe complete game possibility. Boston’s bullpen is the primary reason forPedro’s 2-3 record. Johnson and Maddux are both at 500, Wells is 3-2. Hamptonis 4-1 and Brown is 3-1.

Since baseball is a game played in segments, with different strategies andresources needed in a typical game, it is too simplistic to blindly wager onthese pitchers.

Next let’s look at the pitchers I consider slightly below the abovementioned. I have sixteen pitchers on this list, and their teams’ record whenthey pitch is 59-31. This is equal to 65.5% or about –200. But of course theaverage you have to lay on them is under –140, and in many cases they are theunderdogs. Radke and Milton are a combined 11-1, underdogs about half the time.Schilling, Glavine and Clemens are a combined 13-4.

Is there a message in all this? I believe so. Don’t get caught up in mediahype, which leads bettors to believe that certain pitchers can’t lose. Widenyour perspective to include pitchers who are almost "elite" but arenot perceived that way. They usually face easier opposition, which I believe isthe main factor in most victories.

Pedro has been matched against Hentgen, Lopez, Clemens, Wilson, and Radke.When a team has an elite or almost elite pitcher, Pedro is matched up againstthem. Partly because Arizona has Johnson, look at what Schilling faces :Dreifort, Brown, Villone, Bohanon, and Grilli. Only one elite match-up. WhenSchilling pitched, Arizona had a very good chance of winning anyway, justbecause of the mediocre pitching they had to face.

When you look at the odds you must lay on elite pitchers think about this:-220 is the same as a 68.7 win percentage. In the year 2000 no team in the MajorLeagues played at a 60% win pace.

What should you do in these situations? Be willing to wait for a favorablematch-up. This may mean that you have to lay a bit more, but your win percentagewill justify it. Second, try to keep up with above 500 teams who have almostelite pitching and will face a mediocre arm and team.

Hope this helped explain away some sources of baseball betting frustration,and Good Luck!

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